CNN’s senior political data reporter Harry Enten suggested on Thursday that either Democratic nominee Kamala Harris or her Republican opponent Donald Trump could achieve a significant victory in the Electoral College during the 2024 election, despite current polling showing a tight race.
Enten shared his insights during an appearance on “News Central” with anchor John Berman. He stated that there is a “majority yes” chance that the election winner could secure at least 300 electoral votes.
In response, Berman exclaimed, “Oh my God, you’re making my hair hurt.”
Enten pointed out that there is less than a two-point difference in polling between Harris and Trump across seven key battleground states. However, he noted that the average polling error in these states has been 3.4 points since 1972.
He explained that if Harris wins all the swing states, she could end up with 319 electoral votes. On the other hand, if Trump secures those states, he would win with 312 votes.
“If all the states move in one direction, one of these candidates could achieve a relative blowout in the Electoral College, winning 300-plus electoral votes,” Enten reiterated.
He added that “history tells us it is more likely than not that polling errors in swing states will move in one direction,” which could result in a substantial Electoral College victory.
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